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BP Daily: An AL reality check

By Jay Jaffe
Baseball Prospectus

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Drawing conclusions from one month's play is a challenge. PECOTA projections, run differentials, strength of schedule and batted-ball results all fit into what I'll call the Rorschach test of impending correction: selectively viewed blots of data that can justify nearly every regression-to-the-mean scenario under the sun. Given that we know the Blue Jays were projected to win 75 games in a brutally difficult division, that they're nonetheless 18-10 thanks to league leads in equivalent average, ...

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