Most of the talk is about Jermaine O'Neal reportedly being traded to the Raptors, or the Nuggets trading the Bobcats their 20th pick. (I have heard, as have many others, that the Nuggets were dead-set on picking Ty Lawson, and when Lawson rededicated himself to college the pick lost some luster.) There is also some chatter worth checking out involving big-name Pistons and big-name Warriors. And don't forget the mystery of the second pick.
But I am a Blazer fan, and the trade talk that I'm fixated on involves Portland and New Jersey. Here's the version Chad Ford is reporting:
... the Blazers are talking about moving up to No. 10 in a deal with the Nets that would send 13, 33 and Jarrett Jack to New Jersey for 10 and Mo Ager. The Blazers' target appears to be Augustin. I think the farthest he will drop is Cleveland at No. 19.
Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski and DraftExpress's Jonathan Givony have similar tales, although the Net in the deal is sometimes Marcus Williams, and the Blazer is sometimes Steve Blake.
Here's my thought: D.J. Augustin is a better point guard than Jarrett Jack based on ... what?
Everyone agrees that the perfect point guard to play alongside Brandon Roy is a great spot-up shooter and defender. Roy can run the offense, but you don't want the point guard's defender leaving his man to crowd Roy, nor Roy getting exhausted or in foul trouble trying to stop top guards like Baron Davis or Tony Parker. (In fact, read the impassioned case that Mario Chalmers was, essentially, born to play alongside Brandon Roy.)
Anyway, I recognize that Augustin brings a lot to the table. He's a feisty dude, and a winner.
He's also one of the best point guards in this draft, and Portland needs a long-term solution at point guard.
But on the key measures -- outside shooting and defense -- he's not a big improvement over Jarrett Jack, and this deal would be two decent picks and Jack for Augustin and a player you might buy out.
D.J. Augustin is 5-11, and fights every night, but will nonetheless get killed by many of the league's bigger point guards. Jarrett Jack is 6-3, known to be an unbelievably hard worker, and came out of college seen as one of the best defenders in the country. In the NBA, he has been a splendid defender only some nights. But I'd wager that over the long haul, he's more useful to an NBA defense than D.J. Augustin.
Comparing the two as shooters is something of a wash. Augustin shot 38% this past season from the (20-9) college 3-point line. Jarrett Jack shot 34% from the (23-9) NBA 3-point line over the same period. Hard to say either was the superior shooter.
Not to mention, Jack is at the age (he'll turn 25 early next season) when he knows the opponents and the referees, and is about to enter his peak years. Augustin, undersized and just 20, is a guy you'll have to pay through some growing pains.
So, if Augustin is really the target, I don't love this move, if it becomes reality. In fact, I have a hard time believing that is really what is going on here.
Further supporting that suspicion, I have seen reported, and I have heard from well-informed sources, that Augustin is unlikely to last past Charlotte's ninth pick.
However, there are several other theories out there.
One is that the tenth pick might be part of a package that could get Portland Minnesota's third pick, which could become O.J. Mayo.
By process of elimination, that tenth pick will certainly be a coveted name. Someone like Jerryd Bayless, Russell Westbrook, Joe Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, or Eric Gordon will have to be there. So you could see that Minnesota might swap down to ten. But swapping down to thirteen -- Alexis Ajinca territory -- is a tougher sell to Timberwolves fans.
Or another theory I have heard is that Portland really wants Bayless or Westbrook (either might be available with the tenth pick) which makes more sense to me than Augustin -- but that's a topic for another blog post.
