Lakers vs. Celtics. Celtics vs. Lakers.
Get used to it. For anyone who followed the NBA in the 1980s, the dream matchup is here, and it's all you're going to be hearing for quite some time.
There will be all kinds of talk about history, and all-time records, and franchise meetings, and Larry Bird, and Magic Johnson.
But what about much more recent history? What about the two times that these two rosters have actually played against each other this season?
How did that go?
I just watched both games, thanks to Synergy Sports. The first was November 23 in Boston, and the 10-1 Celtics beat the 7-5 Lakers 104-97. The second was December 30 in L.A., when the 26-3 Celtics beat the 19-11 Lakers 110-91.
Very interesting stuff.
Now, before we get too into this, let me point out a couple of key things that dilute the importance of this analysis:
- The Lakers did not have Pau Gasol for either of these games, which is a huge deal, obviously. However, they did have Andrew Bynum. And Rajon Rondo missed the game in Los Angeles.
- Cleveland was 2-0 against the Spurs last year, if you see what I mean. And what I mean, I guess, is that two games is a very small sample size.
Some general observations about how the Celtics managed to be so effective:
- No Laker big man -- I'm including Lamar Odom in that -- has been effective against the Celtics. A lot of that is surely the Kevin Garnett effect, but Kendrick Perkins was also a monster, especially the first time the two teams met, way back in November. Perkins' whole stat line was pretty impressive (21 points on ten shots, nine boards, just one foul), but especially the part where it says his team was +30 during his 34 minutes on the floor. One game +/- doesn't mean all that much, but you seldom see such massive numbers. A lot of people now expect the Lakers to win. You have to think those people have a lot of confidence in Pau Gasol.
- The Celtics, who play at a slower pace than 18 other teams, managed impressive totals of 104 and 100 points against the Lakers. In the two games combined they made 76 out of the 156 shots they took, which is nearly 49%. Many different players (Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen) contributed to that efficiency, which makes you think there might be something systemic at work, as opposed to a hot hand or two.
- After the last time they played, Kobe Bryant was stating the obvious when he told the Associated Press: "They're one of the elite teams. They're at the next level. They're at the level we're trying to get to, and the challenge is there for us -- do we want to stay in this middle pack, or do we want to get to that next level? And that requires for us to kind of double the work load."
The main thing you'll notice, watching those two games, however, is that Kobe Bryant, the MVP, the maestro, the superstar, was a miserable 15-46 from the floor in the two games combined. Even though neither game was close, if Bryant had been remotely hot in either game, the Lakers would have been right in the thick of things.
Yet he was cold as ice. How did that happen? Who did that to him?
Tom Thibodeau vs. Kobe Bryant
Last year, the Celtics were not an elite defensive team. In fact, they were miserable. A lot has changed this year, as the team has the best defensive rating in basketball by a wide margin.
Certainly, one key was adding Kevin Garnett, who has been an All-NBA defender nine times, and was recently crowned the league's defensive player of the year.
But another massive factor was the addition of assistant coach Tom Thibodeau, who has been the talk of the league -- and a candidate for many head coaching positions -- thanks to the astounding team defense the Celtics have played.
The simple truth is that, anchored by Garnett, nearly all of the Celtics are displaying newfound commitment to defense and rebounding, which has been driving the team's big margins of victory through much of the regular season.
Boston is also blessed with a handful of perimeter players -- James Posey, Tony Allen, Rajon Rondo -- who have certain defensive gifts.
So, surely the Celtics must have been using their best defenders against Bryant, to get those kinds of results, right? That's the only way to slow the game's most potent offensive weapon, isn't it?
That's what I expected to see. A steady diet of James Posey. But as is often the case, the video tells a different story.
Instead, let me tell you that, in all those possessions, the Celtics almost never played great individual perimeter defense against Bryant. They only doubled him hard a handful of times, and even then mostly for shock value late in games. They went under nearly all picks, or simply got stuck on them. Even the weakest screen was more than enough to force a switch or get Bryant wide open.
Bryant's most common defender by far was Ray Allen who -- I'm telling you -- simply can not stay with Bryant. Oh, yes, he tried. And as you can see, in the photo, sometimes he managed to be in the neighborhood when Bryant got the shot off. But this was far from textbook one-on-one defense.
Yes, Tony Allen guarded Bryant some, when Ray Allen was out of the game.
When Ray Allen had foul trouble, Paul Pierce handled some possessions. He looks creaky on defense, and usually didn't even bother to meet Bryant until he got to the free-throw line.
Eddie House and Kendrick Perkins got their hands on Kobe solo in broken plays and scramble situations, for instance when the Lakers got offensive rebounds.
But it worked.
Through it all, most of the time, the rest of the Celtics' defense stayed in position to protect the rim and stymie the one thing Bryant can do that can kill you -- get in the lane, make easy shots, and draw fouls.
The hope, apparently, was to keep Bryant off the line, and on the perimeter. Sticking Bryant out there on the perimeter, alone against one of Boston's weakest defenders in Ray Allen (and a player who had, himself, been making Bryant look bad at the other end), was just the mother of all dares for Bryant. Triangle be damned. Bryant fired away.
This is the Jedi mind trick that Tom Thibodeau is playing on Bryant, who is a very confident long-distance shooter. You're leaving me, all alone, out here, with him?
It's not a new idea. For instance, in Jack McCallum's book Seven Seconds or Less we learn that a couple of years ago both the Sun and the Laker coaching staffs thought high-volume shooting from Bryant hurt the Lakers.
The Celtics have a real strength: Going to the hoop against Boston is tough. Perkins, Garnett, and Posey are all very active and capable. (Also, if someone besides Ray Allen were guarding Bryant, Allen would have to be a helper, and I'm not at all convinced he could do that very well.) Whenever Bryant got near the rim he was usually shooting surrounded by three or four long bodies, which resulted in runners, floaters, and scoops, instead of layups and dunks.
I should also point out that in both of these games, Bryant did not seem to have his usual elevation. Who knows what unreported ailments may have been dogging him at that point. But he was certainly not flying. At one point, he even caught a nice lob at the rim, and landed with it.
He has looked more spry recently, but while Bryant may have Jordan-like scoring numbers, he's certainly not getting them by dunking over big men. Not against Boston.
But who needs to fight to the rim, you can see Bryant thinking, when you can score all day against that guy on the perimeter?
Luckily for the Celtics, Bryant's shot was more than a little off, and he couldn't take advantage. Meanwhile, the Lakers' total offensive efficiency plummeted. A Bryant miss from deep doesn't get others open, it doesn't draw a lot of fouls, and it doesn't wear down defenders.
In the first game, in Boston, Bryant shot a very respectable three-for-six from 3-point land. But he also shot five very long two-pointers -- the least efficient shots in the game -- and only made one of those. Below the free-throw line, on the other hand, he made five of ten shots.
The second time they played each other everyone was angry. There were six technicals, and Kevin Garnett got stitches above his eye. The Lakers were also apparently cranky that, for the first half, they had to wear short shorts as part of a throwback theme.
Bryant took all that energy and put it into gunning. By my count, he took 14 shots from beyond the free-throw line and missed them all. Closer in he made six of 11.
The grand totals show that in the two games, Bryant took 46 shots, which he made into 50 points, thanks in large part to being 17-20 from the line. He had only six assists, in the two games combined, and none of his teammates really got all that hot.
From beyond the free-throw line, again by my count, he finished 4-25 over the two games, and not surprisingly, the Celtics won both games easily. That means, to me, that the Celtics will almost certainly have to keep trying this approach. It's a no-brainer. If you were going to tweak anything, in fact, you might urge Allen not to play harder, but to be even more careful not to foul -- as the free throw line is where Bryant has been most efficient.
That means Bryant ought to be getting plenty of good opportunities to score from the perimeter. His ability to hit those shots, or to turn the space he can create for himself into opportunities for his teammates like Pau Gasol, could decide the series.
The only reason Doc Rivers and Tom Thibodeau might pause, is that San Antonio essentially just tried this same thing in the Western Conference finals -- with an even better defender, Bruce Bowen -- yet Bryant shot very well as the Lakers rolled.
For that reason, ESPN's David Thorpe imagines the Celtics probably are at least considering plan B.
"If you're Gregg Popovich right now, you're thinking that you executed your plan about as well as possible. You kept Kobe Bryant off the free-throw line. You shaded off of him, and forced him to make a shot, instead of getting to the line," explains Thorpe. "But now that the Lakers beat you, you might be wondering if maybe you should have tried beating him up all series long. Putting bodies on him again and again and hitting him hard. Sure he kills you at the line in the early going, but what happens in the fourth quarter, or in Games 2, 3, and 4? As the series grinds on, that tactic could make you look better and better. It might not work, but at least you don't have to deal with Kobe Bryant look fresh as a daisy in the fourth quarter of every game, which happened against San Antonio."
Will the Celtics let Bryant fire away from long-range, and if so, will Bryant convert?
If the regular season is any guide, there's a championship in the balance.
(Photo: Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images)