Posted by Brian Windhorst
The Heat lost again Wednesday, getting handled by the 76ers in Philly, to drop their record to 8-21. It has gotten so bad, so fast, that Shaquille O'Neal actually admitted after the game that if the Heat were smart they might be able to get the eighth playoff spot. Shaq, by the way, has a hip injury and Jason Williams is getting his knee checked out in South Florida today. More good news, Heat faithful.
Here's the nuts and bolts. Last season, the No. 8 seed in the East went to the Orlando Magic at 40-42. Just to get there, the Heat would need to finish this season 32-21. Not that such a mark is impossible with Dwyane Wade and even a half-Shaq. But at this point, here's the real question that Pat Riley and the rest of the Heat need to ask themselves: What is best for this team right now?
The answer may not be to get hot just to get the No. 8 seed. Perhaps the best decision in the long term is to think long term. I was at the Cavs-Heat game in Cleveland on Christmas and it was obvious that DWade just isn't 100 percent. I'm not sure whether it is the shoulder bothering him, the knee, or a case of shock, but he's not himself. If you watched SportsCenter this morning and the lowlights of him getting burned on defense, you may agree. Shaq and the rest of the Heat are obviously struggling with his transition from star to role player, and let's be honest, that is what is happening.
Injuries, age and the loss of assets with nothing in return has decimated this team. How soon before Riley must commit himself to rebuilding? Why use Williams' or Ricky Davis' expiring contracts to just get a player that might help the Heat get to .500? Why not look to get prospects or somehow get another draft pick? Why not re-double your college scouting and start thinking about getting a high lottery pick in a super-deep draft.
Daequan Cook is young and promising and not getting consistent playing time. Play him and let him learn through his mistakes. Dorell Wright has developed a good mid-range jumper and is a starter, but gets just over 20 minutes a game. Play him some more, too. Chris Quinn doesn't look like an NBA player but he's had some good efforts and shown growth, when he gets healthy play him just to see what you have. Heck, even Earl Barron has done OK since Alonzo Mourning's terrible injury. See if he can be a legit rotation player in this league. None of this will make the Heat better in 2007-08, but it sure may pay off in '08-09 and the vital '09-10, the last year of Wade's contract.
In the summer of 2005 after the Heat just missed the Finals, Riley surprised some when he tore his team up. He made that four-team deal that got the Heat three key role players -- James Posey, Williams and Antoine Walker -- that got the team to a title. It turned out to be a gutty move that was best for the franchise. Now is time for more vision and guts: get worse to get better.
