Points and rebounds are so 80s. These days it's all about efficiency ratings, point differential, and regression modeling. The world of Freakonomics, economics, and Moneyball has come to the NBA in a pretty major way, and it's exciting. The revolution is taking place right now, and it involves people like David Berri, John Hollinger, Justin Kubatko, Jeff Ma, Kevin Pelton, and Mike Kurylo. Remember those names.
NBA teams are listening to people like them. Roland Beech and the people at 82games are working for NBA teams. Visionary basketball statistician and author Dean Oliver has a job with the Denver Nuggets. Dan Rosenbaum takes time out from his work as a professor to advise the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Dallas Mavericks rely on Wayne Winston and Jeff Sagarin. Perhaps you have heard of my colleague John Hollinger?
I'm all for this, in theory. I have long been disappointed in regular old basketball statistics. And I am convinced that in a decade, the shorthand stats fans use to talk about the game will look very different than they do today. And the new stats that we'll all use? They're being tested and perfected at this very moment. We're all going to learn a lot more about this stuff whether we want to or not.
But I'm impatient. I want to see this knowledge at work in some fashion now.
So I dreamed up a super crude way to see what it is that these statistical gurus know: I invited the world's best and brightest stat experts (I use the term "geek" lovingly, and with respect) to use their wily ways to predict every series of these mighty 2007 playoffs in a winner-take-all competition. As you'll see, I also invited my mom, for reasons that are not entirely clear, other than that I really hope she wins.
It's TrueHoop's 2007 Stat Geek Smackdown, starting now and going on here all throughout the playoffs. Click around the various series: you'll see that the stat experts do not all agree on who will win Utah vs. Houston, New Jersey vs. Toronto, nor Chicago vs. Miami (although they mostly choose Chicago in that one, unlike a lot of non-statistical experts). More disagreements to come throughout the playoffs. Should be good. I'm excited to see what happens here. And they're also explaining themselves, so maybe we'll all learn a little something about these new statistics as the playoffs unfold. Stay tuned.