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SEC mailbag: How many losses for SEC champ?

September 30, 2008 5:57 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Chris Low

I'll go ahead and get the most popular questions out of the way. No, I don't know if Phillip Fulmer will make it, although I think he's in serious trouble at 6-6 or worse. No, I don't think Florida's offense has been as bad as some in Florida are suggesting, but I do think defenses are catching up a bit to defending Tim Tebow and the spread. Yes, I think Vanderbilt has a real chance to beat Auburn. No, I don't know how good Kentucky is at this point. And, yes, I think Alabama is for real and will be unbeaten going into the LSU game on Nov. 8. Just don't tell Nick Saban I'm looking that far ahead. I don't want to get in his doghouse this early in the season.

Let's empty out the rest of the mailbag:

Matt from Washington, D.C., writes: Here's a scenario to consider for SEC fans: Alabama finishes with one loss (to LSU) and doesn't play for the conference championship. LSU finishes with two losses (both to Florida). Florida wins the SEC with 2 losses (Ole Miss and TBD). Tough case to put a two-loss conference champ in over one-loss USC/OU/Mizzou/PSU/OSU. Very tough to make the case for LSU (see Mizzou last year). Bama would be most intriguing, but would be reminiscent of Nebraska, circa 2001. Does a one-loss Bama team in this scenario get into the BCS title game over a one-loss USC/OU/Mizzou, etc.?

Chris Low: Interesting scenario. But the team you're forgetting about is Georgia. If Florida loses two SEC games, chances are the second loss would be to Georgia. A head-to-head victory over Florida would give Georgia the edge in the Eastern Division race.

That said, I don't think a two-loss SEC champion will make the cut this season in the BCS national championship game similar to LSU last season, but I wouldn't be shocked to see everybody in the SEC have two losses heading into Atlanta, either. Should a one-loss Alabama team not make it to the SEC championship game, I think it would be difficult for the Tide to climb high enough in the polls after losing to LSU without having the benefit of winning that showcase SEC championship game the day before the final BCS standings are released. Remember, LSU and Florida each of the last two years got an added boost from winning the SEC championship game. Without that one last chance to impress voters, I don't think either team would have jumped high enough in the final BCS standings.


Chris from Atlanta writes: What is the biggest non-conference win for the SEC? I'm trying to figure out if there are any games from THIS season to justify so many highly ranked teams when all that comes to mind is Alabama blowing out a Clemson team that looks more mediocre every week.

Chris Low: A fair point. The SEC doesn't own a single nonconference win at this point over a team currently ranked in the Top 25. But let's take a look at the Big 12's resume. Three of the top five teams in the country right now in the coaches' poll are from the Big 12 -- Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas. Combined, those three teams have exactly zero wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25. The respect the SEC gets doesn't come so much from what it's done outside the conference, but how difficult it is from 1 to 12 in that conference. And the SEC hasn't fared too poorly, either, in three of the last five BCS national championship games.


Andy from Jackson, Miss., writes: This is disgusting. Ole Miss just beat Florida in the Swamp and they have less votes in both the AP and coaches' polls than Florida State does. Ole Miss should have beaten Wake Forest at Wake Forest if they hadn't let them come down for a long field goal at the end of the game. They also played a horrible game against Vanderbilt (four interceptions) but still had a chance to win and fumbled at the 1-yard line at the end to lose the game. Florida State was at home and had their butts handed to them by Wake Forest. That game should have been a blowout, but Wake Forest made a ton of mistakes in the Red Zone. What win does Florida State have that proves them better than Ole Miss? If Ole Miss played Florida State on a neutral field, the Rebels would win by at least five touchdowns. I know the polls don't matter that much, but this is absolutely disgusting.

Chris Low: Andy, I wouldn't sweat it too much. The Rebels have lost two games, so they're not going to get a lot of love at this point. If it makes you feel any better, I think Ole Miss is the team that nobody will want to play as we head into the second half of this season. The Rebels are finally healthy in their defensive line and have enough playmakers on offense to give teams fits. The game this weekend against South Carolina in Oxford is crucial, though, if Ole Miss is going to approach that eight-win figure.


Don from Maryville, Tenn., writes: Why can't UT work Stephens with the first unit this week and start him against Northern Illinois? If he can't cut it, then go back to Crompton. OR do you think if Crompton is pulled, he's through?

Chris Low: I think that's why the Vols didn't pull Jonathan Crompton either of the last two games. They're afraid if they go to another quarterback that they will lose Crompton for the rest of the season. If that happens and Nick Stephens can't cut it, then they're really in trouble. Of course, having witnessed the Vols' offensive showing to this point, I can't imagine them being much worse. The bottom line is they have to try something new, which is Stephens at quarterback. I don't know if he'll start, but I bet he plays a bunch.


Jason from Lexington, Ky., writes: Hello Chris. Wanted to thank you for giving Kentucky's defense some credit. Only giving up 20 points in three games, how many big SEC games can the Wildcats defense keep Kentucky in?

Chris Low: Some longtime observers of the Kentucky program think this might be the best defense the Wildcats have had since the 1977 team that finished 10-1. That team held six of its opponents to a touchdown or less. This is clearly the best defense Rich Brooks has had since he's been at Kentucky, and I think the Wildcats will hold up fine against SEC offenses. Their front four is the most underrated in the conference. Still, they've got to prove it, and that starts Saturday in Tuscaloosa. Barring a collapse, I see the Wildcats going to their third straight bowl, which hasn't been done at Kentucky since 1949-51 when Bear Bryant was the coach.

Alabama Crimson Tide, Nick Saban, Florida Gators, Tim Tebow, Georgia Bulldogs, Ole Miss Rebels, Tennessee Vols, Phillip Fulmer, Jonathan Crompton, Nick Stephens, Kentucky Wildcats

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