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Best-case-Worst case: Oregon

August 8, 2008 1:30 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

Third in a series looking at potential dream and nightmare scenarios for all Pac-10 teams, starting from the top of our preseason Power Rankings and working down.

Or at least that was supposed to be the sequence. As a few of you have pointed out -- in a wide variety of ways -- I screwed up and went with Arizona State after USC instead of MY No. 2 team, Oregon.

What I want to know is this: Where are you guys all the times I've successfully counted to 10? Why no e-mails then, telling me, "Good job today? You got all 10 numbers in correct sequence."

Sorry about that.

Up next: Oregon

Best case

Folks say anything can happen in rivalry games, but it hasn't been like that recently with Oregon and Washington. Oregon has owned the matchup of late, and 2008 is no exception, with new Ducks quarterback Nate Costa out Jake Lockering Jake Locker, running for 110 yards and passing for 225 in a 51-24 victory. Oregon doesn't match the school-record 465 rushing yards it rolled up against the Huskies in 2007, but coach Mike Bellotti doesn't complain about the 379 split between Costa, Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount.

After blowing out Utah State, Oregon heads to Purdue, where its touted secondary ends Boilermakers QB Curtis Painter's dark horse Heisman Trophy candidacy with four interceptions. Meanwhile, the lighting-quick Oregon offense makes the Purdue defense look like it's stuck in spilled boilermakers. Johnson particularly puts on a show with 252 yards of total offense.

After a surprisingly easy victory over Boise State and a mistake-filled slog at Washington State, the No. 8 and 5-0 Ducks head down to USC, which three weeks before moved up to No. 1 in the nation after whipping Ohio State.

With USC leading, 10-7, midway through the second quarter, the Ducks take over on their 6-yard line. And they commence a 14-play touchdown drive consisting of eight runs and six passes. It's a stunning show of spread-option efficiency, and the Ducks begin to light up the scoreboard against the nation's best defense.

When the smoke clears, the Ducks win, 42-30, and become national title contenders.

Next to a Eugene Register-Guard story on Oregon's new No. 2 ranking, is a split picture between Costa and Johnson. The headline reads: Heisman duo?

An easy home win over UCLA, followed by a pair of gritty victories on the road over California and Arizona State follow -- the win over the Devils not secure until end Nick Reed sacks Rudy Carpenter at the 10-yard line as time expires in a 34-30 victory.

It comes down to the Civil War. Unbeaten and now No. 1-ranked Oregon and its 14th-ranked rivals, Oregon State.

The Beavers take a 14-10 halftime lead, with Costa throwing his fourth and fifth interceptions of the year before the break.

Then offensive coordinator Chip Kelly looks at Mike Bellotti: "Ludicrous speed?" he asks. "Yes, Ludicrous speed," Bellotti replies.

Thirty unanswered points later, and Oregon finishes the 2008 season unbeaten.

The BCS computers speak: Oregon meets Missouri in Miami for the national title.

The game, it turns out, is a bit of a bore -- unless you wear Duck green. The unbeaten Big 12 champs simply have no answer for Johnson, Blount and Costa, who take a 28-7 halftime lead and coast home with a 40-24 victory.

Oregon wins its first national championship.

And Duck fans, henceforth, vow to be nicer to everyone.

Worst case

It's not easy being a first-time starter at quarterback in the Pac-10, and that becomes abundantly clear when Washington announces its return to the conference race with a 33-17 win inside a stunned Autzen Stadium that couldn't even muster a cheer when the new giant scoreboard showed Kenny Wheaton's celebrated interception.

Too much good stuff from Washington's Jake Locker. Too much bad stuff from Oregon's Nate Costa.

Oregon, after licking its wounded feathers, has little trouble with Utah State the following week, but two Costa interceptions put him on the bench and Justin Roper on the field. Roper then starts and plays fairly well against Purdue. Only the Ducks celebrated secondary gets picked apart by Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter, who bolsters his dark horse Heisman Trophy candidacy with three touchdown passes in a 42-35 win.

After splitting with Boise State and Washington State, the Ducks head down to a showdown at No. 1 USC. It becomes clear, however, that Pete Carroll has figured out the spread-option -- or at least when it doesn't feature Dennis Dixon. Roper goes down with an injury in the second quarter, and Costa quickly throws a pick and fumbles.

Meanwhile, the Trojans run right at the Ducks' defense, which is forced to put eight and nine men in the box to stop the stable of USC backs. Then Mark Sanchez goes over the top for two touchdowns and the stomping is on. Final count: 63-17.

Coach Mike Bellotti announces the following Monday that Chris Harper will be the new quarterback. It's a bold coaching move going with a freshman quarterback, but it pays off. The Ducks, with now muted expectations, win three of their next five games.

It comes down to the Civil War as to whether Bellotti will avoid only his second losing season in 14 years. A 6-6 finish also would get the Ducks into a bowl game.

But the 14th-ranked Beavers won't be denied in this bitter, bitter -- BITTER, I SAY -- rivalry. Their front seven, which transformed from "completely rebuilt" to "completely dominant" throttles the Ducks' spread in a 21-10 win.

The Ducks stay home for the bowl season.

And on Dec. 13, Nike founder Phil Knight files for bankruptcy.

Oregon Ducks, Mike Bellotti, Nate Costa, LeGarrette Blound, Jeremiah Johnson, Chris Harper, Curtis Painer, Purdue Boilermakers, Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State Sun Devils, California Bears, Oregon State Beavers, Stanford Cardinal, UCLA Bruins, USC Trojans, Washington Huskies, Washington State Cougars, Mark Sanchez, Boise State, Jake Locker

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