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Are the non-BCS teams ranked where they should be?

October 6, 2008 2:50 PM

Posted by ESPN.com's Graham Watson

There has been a lot of argument the past couple weeks about which team deserves to be considered the best of the non-BCS. And while various fans could go back and forth about opponents and such, I thought the best way to decide would be to look at the statistics.

There are five undefeated teams remaining in the non-BCS and four of them are in the Top 25 this week. But are those teams ranked where they should be? The NCAA's ranking of toughest schedules suggests that Boise State has played the toughest schedule to this point. But if you factor all of the competition, past and future, based on their record today, Utah has the toughest schedule.

BYU, the highest ranked team, has the second-toughest schedule overall, but has played the easiest schedule of the list to date. Consequently, BYU's offensive and defensive statistics are the best of the group.

I suppose it's all about which statistic you value most, but looking at the top 3 on this list based solely on statistics, you can make an argument for any of the three teams to be the best of the non-BCS. But statistically to this point, based on strength of schedule and statistics, Boise State fans would have a good case to claim their team the best of the non-BCS.

Remember, all of these statistics are from the NCAA. They are not from the computers that factor into the BCS standings.

NON-BCS RANKED TEAMS BREAKDOWN
AP RANKNAME SOS TO DATESOS CUMULATIVESCORING OFFENSESCORING DEFENSE
9BYU (Mountain West)11674108
14Utah (Mountain West)62561848
15Boise State (WAC)19892112
25Ball State (MAC)881091227
27Tulsa (C-USA)103117162

Looking at these numbers objectively, I think Boise State is the better team. Its offensive and defensive scoring numbers are fantastic compared to their competition. The Broncos own a convincing road win over then-No. 17 Oregon. They have the second-toughest schedule to date of any of the non-BCS schools.

The problem is that the rest of the WAC is pulling Boise State down. That's not conjecture, that's fact. Commissioner Karl Benson said the conference needed some equilibrium during the conference media days in July. That's why Boise State's strength of schedule drops so drastically.

The Mountain West is the best of the non-BCS conferences. If you look at the toughest cumulative schedules, there are four Mountain West teams that have tougher schedules relative to their cumulative competition (past and future) than Utah, according to the NCAA. New Mexico has the toughest schedule (20) followed by TCU (35), San Diego State (40), and Air Force (47).

New Mexico has the most difficult schedule of all non-BCS teams. Utah State (51) is the only non-Mountain West team that pops in before Utah.

Boise State won't be able to make up ground on either Utah or BYU unless something dramatic happens with either team. We know that at least one of those teams will lose, but if the other doesn't that boosts that team in the standings.

Now I bet you're asking why BYU and Utah are ranked ahead of Boise State in the power rankings?  Because much like the AP rankings, it's hard to justify a move in ranking if a team doesn't lose. Neither BYU or Utah have done anything to warrant being dropped in the power rankings and as the season treks on both Mountain West teams will play tougher schedules.

BCS standings come out on Oct. 19.

Brigham Young Cougars, Utah Utes, Boise State Broncos, Ball State Cardinals, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Texas Christian Horned Frogs, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Navy Midshipmen, Western Michigan Broncos, Fresno State Bulldogs

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