ESPN Independents and Others Blog

Posted by ESPN.com's Graham Watson

Well, it was bound to happen, my first losing weekend. My numbers are steadily trailing off, but it's the halfway point of the season and it's time to get back on the upswing.

There are a couple of good games this week, including Tulsa and Rice and Utah and Oregon State and I'm committed to getting those particular picks correct.

WEEK 1: 14-2
WEEK 2: 14-4
WEEK 3: 10-8
WEEK 4: 8-4
WEEK 5: 4-8

Ball State 42, Toledo 19: Not sure where Toledo's head will be after last week's loss to Florida International and Ball State isn't exactly a team that that can get your confidence up. The Cardinals have scored 35 points or more in every game this season and running back MiQuale Lewis should have another good day against a Toledo run defense that allows 154.3 yards per game.

Western Michigan 21, Ohio 18: Western Michigan has not played well against the two MAC foes it's faced this season and should have a similar game against Ohio. Ohio doesn't have many wins, but it's hung with every team it's played. The Broncos get the advantage because the game's at home.

Tulsa 56, Rice 48: After looking at what these two teams have done on offense this year, it's hard to predict anything but a shootout here. While these teams are pretty equal, I think this game will be won in the trenches. It's all about which team can give its quarterback time to execute the offense. I like Tulsa in a gritty effort.

UTEP 27, Southern Miss 24: Call me a believer. UTEP's defense has steadily gotten better each week and I think the Miners carry the confidence from their huge win over Central Florida into this game. Southern Miss has been hit and miss this year and it's hard to get a read. No doubt they'll play good defense, but they haven't faced an spread attack like UTEP's this season.

Air Force 21, Navy 18 (OT): This game was really difficult to pick. I was leaning toward Navy, but the fact that Air Force is at home and got an extra week to prepare for Navy's triple option sways this game in the Falcons' favor. It's going to be close though. Three of the last five meetings have been decided by a field goal.

Notre Dame 34, Stanford 21: The Irish will continue its winning ways at home this weekend against a Stanford team if it plays the way it did against Purdue. That's really what this game is about. Was last weekend an aberration or has Notre Dame finally turned a corner?

Utah 31, Oregon State 17: I might be the only person in the world that doesn't think this is going to be a game. I think the Utes get up for this game at home against a team that not only handed them a loss last year, but also broke their running back's leg and busted their quarterback's shoulder. Utah will be ready for this game and should take control early.

UNLV 28, Colorado State 14: Despite last week's loss to Nevada, I still think UNLV is an up-and-comer in the Mountain West. Luckily for the Rebels, Colorado State doesn't have a mobile quarterback and the UNLV pass defense is pretty decent. Colorado State has come on of late. It got a big win over Houston, but I think the Rebels rebound in this one.

Florida International 32, North Texas 12: These teams have one win between them this season and the common theme has been the lack of scoring. But Florida International seemed to get over that hump last week with 35 points over Toledo. Florida International defeated North Texas last year and I think we'll see the same result.

Louisiana-Lafayette 24, Louisiana-Monroe 17: This is a tough game to pick because these teams have identical records and have played similar schedules. I'm leaning toward Louisiana-Lafayette because their scoring has been more consistent than Louisiana-Monroe and Michael Desormeaux and Tyrell Fenroy are tough to contain.

Fresno State 35, Hawaii 17: Fresno State has been playing better since its loss to Wisconsin and Hawaii has been struggling all season long. Much of the problem is at quarterback. The Warriors have yet to find a consistent threat. Fresno State should be able to move the ball on the ground against Hawaii's defense that has given up more than 200 yards to the two running teams it's faced.

BYU 45, Utah State 7: I wasn't even going to predict this game, but I ran out of WAC games to predict. I think BYU has its normal dominant day, but I'm giving Utah State the touchdown because of quarterback Diondre Borel's ability to scramble. BYU struggled with that against Washington. Not saying Utah State is Washington, but Borel should be a nice weapon in this one.