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	Former No. 1 pick Alex Smith has just 19 touchdowns in three seasons.

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- This was not what the San Francisco 49ers envisioned when they made Alex Smith the first player chosen in the 2005 draft.

If the numbers mean anything, this wasn't what the 49ers envisioned as recently as March 3, when they signed quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan for the minimum allowable salary.

O'Sullivan, scheduled to make his third consecutive exhibition start Thursday night, is playing under a one-year deal counting $491,000 against the salary cap. Smith's contract counts 20 times as much, more than $9.9 million.

The gulf reflects the conflict between fading long-term organizational goals and the need for coach Mike Nolan to win right now or lose his job. Nolan doesn't have time to wait for Smith, no matter how much the organization has invested in its franchise quarterback. Nolan can't come out and say so, at times leaving him fumbling for words.

"Well, in our situation that's hypothetical at this point," Nolan said after practice Tuesday. "So, I don't -- that doesn't, we're not dealing with that."

They will eventually. It's tough to see Nolan succeeding in San Francisco without Smith also showing a return on the organization's massive investment. Quarterbacks drafted first overall succeed, or their coaches pay the price.

Tim Couch's struggles in Cleveland helped bring down Chris Palmer. David Carr's problems in Houston doomed Dom Capers. Eli Manning's improvement last season keyed a playoff run that saved Tom Coughlin from a predictable fate.

Nolan is bucking history if he benches Smith this season.

Every other quarterback drafted first overall since 1967 has started at least nine games in his fourth season: Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, John Elway, Vinny Testaverde, Troy Aikman, George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Couch, Michael Vick, Carr, Carson Palmer and Eli Manning.

Nolan still might name Smith the starter, but the odds appear to be diminishing by the day. O'Sullivan has taken the first-team reps in practice since Aug. 6. He started the first two exhibition games and could play into the third quarter against the Chicago Bears on Thursday night. Shaun Hill also remains an option in theory, although he is clearly third in the race.

Nolan said the short week gave him little choice but to maintain the status quo at quarterback. The explanation failed to acknowledge the obvious commitment to O'Sullivan in practice and games to this point.

"There's been no decision made," Nolan said. "All we're doing is keeping the same process we've been going."

The 49ers exercised an $8 million option as part of Smith's contract days after O'Sullivan came aboard. Paying the option amounted to a formality -- failing to do so would have guaranteed future base salaries -- but the massive difference in quarterback contracts seemed to give Smith an edge. That was not the case.

"This decision's going to be based on who we feel, at this point, gives us the best chances to win," Nolan said.

In retrospect, the decision to retain Nolan might have precipitated the end for Smith as a viable quarterback in San Francisco. It certainly killed any plans to develop Smith at the expense of short-term goals, a notion that now seems as dated as Nolan's 2005 assessment of his new quarterback.

"We felt Alex was the one that most fit what we want our football team to look like," Nolan told the San Francisco Chronicle at the time. "He's a very competitive individual, very hard-working [and] has been a winner all along."

Smith, now working under his fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons, arguably isn't getting enough practice work to succeed in the short term.

If anyone needed reps in this offense, it was Smith. O'Sullivan already knew the offense after spending the 2007 season with 49ers offensive coordinator Mike Martz in Detroit.

Nolan obviously feels he can't afford to look farther down the road than Sept. 7, when the Arizona Cardinals visit Candlestick Park for the regular-season opener. O'Sullivan's knowledge of the offense probably makes him the best choice for Week 1, even if it means sacrificing what now stands as a $24 million investment in Smith.

Slow starts can trigger in-season dismissals for coaches with 16-32 records in their first three seasons with a team.

	Kyle Terada/US Presswire
	J.T. O'Sullivan is scheduled to make his third consecutive exhibition start Thursday night.

O'Sullivan knows how hard it is to succeed without getting first-team practice reps. He has played in five regular-season games since 2002 in stints with New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, Carolina and Detroit. The 25 passes O'Sullivan has attempted during this exhibition season are one shy of his regular-season career total.

A 2002 sixth-round choice of New Orleans from UC Davis, O'Sullivan made his mark professionally in leading the Frankfurt Galaxy to World Bowl XII in 2004. This is his chance to prove himself as an NFL starter.

"Reps are cherished in this league as a quarterback, so I mean every single rep, whether it be a game or practice, I try to make the absolute most out of," O'Sullivan said. "So, these reps have been great."

Reporters crowded around Smith after practice Tuesday, the same old questions soliciting the same guarded answers.

Alex, are you a little disappointed you aren't going to start this game?

"I'm not thinking about that right now. I'm worrying about Chicago and the reps I'm going to get, and what I need to do with them."

Do you think it's been a fair competition? Going into camp it was supposedly going to be that. Does it seem like it's panned out that way?

"Like I said, I'm not getting into all that. I've got my reps out here and [I'm] just trying to take advantage of them and trying to do what I can with them. [I'm] not sure what they're thinking or what is going on upstairs, but like I said, those are reps I'll get and I need to get ready for them. It is a short week. I'm getting ready to play Chicago."

You've been a starter your entire career. Have you thought about what it might be like going into the season, not being that guy?

"I'm not thinking about that now. When that comes, I'll deal with it. That's part of the game too, but until then, no. So, I'm focused in on what I need to do this Thursday."

When a public relations staffer intervened to say Smith would take only one more question, silence prevailed. There was nothing left to say.