After my second mock draft was met with universal praise throughout the league, I thought about shutting things down until the week of the draft. Sadly, my editors had something else in mind.
The good news is that I know pretty much everyone on the Dolphins' coaching staff. The bad news is they're not saying much. One of my favorite guys in the league, head coach Tony Sparano, surfaced for a few minutes at the league meetings, but he refused to announce the first pick.
Just between us, the Dolphins are about to plant a rumor that they're taking Ohio State linebacker Vernon Gholston. One of my pals in the mock drafting industry has already jumped on this rumor, but I'm steering clear for now.
The Chiefs are running a Matt Ryan campaign because they'd like for the Ravens to move up the board three spots and take him. And I wouldn't put it past the quarterback-starved franchise.
Many of you will think Kansas cornerback Aqib Talib is ranked too high, but keep in mind that I nailed 27 first-round picks last year on a mock draft that I forgot to submit for publication. If you want to be surprised on the first day of the draft, stop reading now. Otherwise, enjoy Hash Mock Vol. 3:
1. Dolphins
Chris Long, DE/OLB, Virginia: I assure you that Sparano is making a strong argument for offensive tackle Jake Long, but Chris Long will be the guy. Bill Parcells loves kids who grew up in football households, and Long certainly fits that description. I'm told that he looked very natural during linebacker drills on his pro day. Honestly, I think the Dolphins would prefer to pass on the pick if they couldn't trade down, but it won't happen. Parcells thinks the money spent at the top of the draft is prohibitive.
Previous pick: Chris Long
2. Rams
Jake Long, OT, Michigan: I keep hearing that several folks in the Rams organization want defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey here. I think they stick with Long unless they can trade down and select Vernon Gholston. The Dolphins and Rams both love Gholston, but not at No. 1 or 2.
Previous pick: Jake Long
3. Falcons
Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College: A scout spent 45 minutes yesterday telling me what types of players GM Tom Dimitroff is looking for. I think Dimitroff would think seriously about taking Jake Long if he's still on the board, but owner Arthur Blank will want the quarterback
Previous pick: Matt Ryan
4. Raiders
Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas: Peter King has called off the Cowboys trade for McFadden, so he'll be scooped up by Al Davis and the Raiders. McFadden may be the most dynamic athlete in the draft. When Davis heard about the unofficial 4.27 40-yard dash at the combine, this pick became a no-brainer.
Previous pick: Darren McFadden
5. Chiefs
Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU: Kansas City is in desperate need of help on the offensive line, but the Chiefs won't reach here. I'll admit that Kiper caught my eye by slotting Virginia guard Brandon Albert here in his latest mock draft. Albert would move to offensive tackle.
Previous pick: Glenn Dorsey
6. Jets
Vernon Gholston, LB, Ohio State: The Rams would love to trade down and select Gholston. He ran a 4.58 at the combine, and his 42-inch vertical blew scouts away. I feel great about this pick. Gholston is a supremely talented player who would be a nice complement to Calvin Pace. Of course, McFadden's the guy if he's still on the board.
Previous pick: Vernon Gholston
7. Patriots
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State: He just fits the mold of what the Patriots are looking for at cornerback. According to a couple of scouts I've talked to, some teams have taken him off the board completely because he only has one kidney. He'll have to sign a medical waiver. I think teams look at his cousin in San Diego, and project him being that type of impact player.
Previous selection: Leodis McKelvin
8. Ravens
Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas: I butchered this one in the second mock draft. There's no way the Ravens take Rodgers-Cromartie. Talib is a big cornerback who moves amazingly well. This is a lot higher than other mockers have him, but I need you to trust me on this one.
Previous pick: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
9. Bengals
Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC: Cincinnati has to take Ellis if he's still on the board. He was a spectacular player at an elite school. I don't think he was great in workouts, but on film, he dominates games. That's what the Bengals should focus on. They've taken cornerbacks in the first round of consecutive drafts. It's time to move on.
Previous pick: Sedrick Ellis
10. Saints
Keith Rivers, OLB, USC: Back-to-back Trojans. The Saints will be tempted to take an elite corner, but the one they really want is Cromartie. We have enough people on the ground in New Orleans to eventually nail this pick, but I'll probably have to make a change.
Previous pick: Keith Rivers
11. Bills
Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida: Still shocked when I see Oklahoma WR Macolm Kelly showing up here on mock drafts. And I'm talking about respected guys in the industry. According to the scouts I've talked to, Kelly is either the third or fourth best receiver in the draft. Michigan State's Devin Thomas is No. 1. Oh, and Harvey is a superb pass-rusher whom the Bills will not be able to pass up. I love the Bills' two hard-working defensive ends, but this guy has a different gear.
Previous pick: Aqib Talib
12. Broncos
Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State: I'm struggling here because I know how much Denver likes Chris Williams out of Vanderbilt. In the end, the Broncos will go with Clady because of his nasty streak. He'll be a good replacement for Matt Lepsis.
Previous pick: Ryan Clady
13. Panthers
Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt: First of all, what a fabulous kid. I had a chance to visit with him one-on-one in the Indianapolis airport. He has a tremendous understanding of the game, which helped him in the team interviews. A couple of teams will end up disappointed they didn't pull the trigger on Williams.
Previous pick: Derrick Harvey
14. Bears
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois: This is one of those picks I'm refusing to switch. Cedric Benson either needs to start competing or step aside. Mendenhall is just the man to push him for playing time. I think Michigan State's Devin Thomas will be tempting, but the Bears will stick with the running back.
Previous pick: Rashard Mendenhall
15. Lions
Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy: Lions fans are thrilled Matt Millen doesn't take another receiver. McKelvin has great value at this pick. A lot of people have him in the top-10, but I'm breaking away from the pack. If Mendenahll gets past Chicago at No. 14, the Lions will have a tough time not taking him.
Previous pick: Chris Williams
16. Cardinals
Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida: Arizona would love McKelvin to fall to them, but Jenkins is one of four elite cornerbacks in the first round. They're all gone now. I can't get a great feel for how this kidney situation will affect Cromartie. If he starts sliding, Arizona will be there to catch him.
Previous pick: Phillip Merling
17. Vikings
Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson: The Vikings desperately need help rushing the passer. Erasmus James is on the verge of bust status, and the other starter, Kenechi Udeze, is battling leukemia. I think Merling's one of the most underrated players in this draft. Good pick for the Vikings.
Previous pick: Calais Campbell
18. Texans
Branden Albert, G, Virginia: My apologies to Texans fans. Jenkins was off the board!! Let's go with Albert instead. Unbelievable frame, so he'll be able to make the transition to either left or right tackle. He's exactly who the Texans need. Sorry to get you fired up about Jenkins.
Previous pick: Mike Jenkins
19. Eagles
Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh: The Eagles are long in the tooth at this position. Eagles fans might want Devin Thomas, but you're better off with a quality offensive tackle. And don't be surprised if the Lions take Otah at No. 15.
Previous pick: Jeff Otah
20. Buccaneers
Devin Thomas, WR, Mich. State: It's about time a wide receiver went off the board. This is a weak draft for wide receivers, and most teams would be better off waiting until the second and third rounds. Thomas only had the one great season in college, but he's clearly the best receiver in the draft. I originally selected Cal's DeSean Jackson, but Jon Gruden wants a physical No. 2 receiver who can complement the aging Joey Galloway. By midseason, Thomas could be the No. 1 receiver.
Previous pick: DeSean Jackson
21. Redskins
Quentin Groves, LB, Auburn: Wait! What happened to Albert. Well, the Texans grabbed him. Groves was my selection in the original mock draft. I know that the Redskins think a lot of him. Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed are possibilities here, but I the Redskins will wait.
Previous pick: Devin Thomas
22. Cowboys
Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas: I think the Cowboys will decide between Jones and Oregon running back Jonathan Stewart. Both players are explosive, but the toe injury that Stewart has is a concern. Jerry Jones isn't as enamored with former Razorbacks as you might think, but Jones is the right guy.
Previous pick: Limas Sweed
23. Steelers
Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College: Not everyone showed up at Chestnut Hill to watch Matt Ryan throw a couple weeks ago. Cherilus could start at right tackle immediately. Pittsburgh wanted Brandon Albert here, but Kiper drove his stock up too high for that to happen.
Previous pick: Branden Albert
24. Titans
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon: The team needs a play-making wide receiver, and Vince Young will be campaigning for former UT teammate Limas Sweed. But I don't think the Titans can pass on Stewart, whose toe injury will keep him out until at least training camp.
Previous pick: Malcolm Kelly
25. Seahawks
Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue: I really like a couple of tight ends in the second round (Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett), but Keller has a chance to be special. The Seahawks have been anything but special at tight end over the years.
Previous pick: Kentwan Balmer
26. Jaguars
Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina: He's the third-best defensive tackle in the draft, and the Jaguars need him. At 6-4, 308, he's excellent against the run. Talked to a scout Tuesday who said Balmer would be better than Sedrick Ellis.
Previous pick: Kenny Phillips
27. Chargers
Dan Connor, ILB, Penn State: I'm a bigger fan of this kid than a lot of people. I think the Giants would love for him to fall to them. Gosder Cherilus might slip to the Chargers, but Connor's going to be a great player in the league. The Chargers haven't been thrilled with their situation at ILB, and Connor will give them another option.
Previous pick: Felix Jones
28. Cowboys
Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech: No matter what happens with Pacman, the Cowboys need another cornerback. Flowers isn't one of the elite corners in the draft, but he has good size (5-11, 192) and he's the best player on the board at this point.
Previous pick: Jonathan Stewart
29. 49ers
Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee: I'd like to see the 49ers go offensive line here, but it's not like they have a huge selection. Mayo's my sleeper pick. He'll end up having a wondeful career in the league. He covers a lot of ground, and he'll punish players.
Previous pick: Gosder Cherilus
30. Packers
Kenny Phillips, S, Miami: Great value at this pick. Some great NFL safeties have come out of the U (Ed Reed, Sean Taylor) and Phillips has a solid future. Regressed a little during his final seasonl, but still a nice player. Cowboys may take him at 28.
Previous pick: Brandon Flowers
31. Patriots
Forfeited the pick
32. Giants
DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal: The Giants had anticipated taking Dan Connor or Jerod Mayo, but Jackson falls into their laps at 32. Great return skills.
Previous pick: Dan Connor
