Posted by ESPN.com's Matt Mosley
Those of us in the mock drafting industry recognize that our failure rate is off the charts. ESPN.com has offered one weekend off per year to anyone who can nail 10 picks in the first round, but it will never happen because of all the trades -- and the fact that we've been lied to for the past two months.
But unlike a lot of the mock drafts that are floating around your cubicle this morning, the Hash Mock draws its inspiration from the top scouts and coaches across the league. I've sifted through all the lies and misdirection plays to bring you what I believe is at least the second or third most accurate mock draft on this site. Now, sit back and enjoy the fourth and final installment of the Hash Mock:
1. Miami
T Jake Long, Michigan: YES! I nailed it. Who cares if the Dolphins actually made their selection public Tuesday. We've known this for weeks. Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland is only doing one interview Monday, and it's with Hashmarks on 103.3 FM in Dallas. Don't underestimate head coach Tony Sparano's influence in this decision. He's a former offensive line coach and he's been touting Long for months. The Dolphins thought Long was the safest pick in the draft.
Previous selection: Chris Long
2. St. Louis
DE Chris Long, Virginia: There are people in the organization who will fighting for Glenn Dorsey until the very last moment, but Long will be the pick. Jake Long might be the safest pick, but Chris Long will have more of an immediate impact. I think he'll eventually be a perennial Pro Bowl player, and that's why he'll make close to $30 million guaranteed.
Previous selection: Jake Long
3. Atlanta
DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU: Several teams have Dorsey as the No. 1 player on their board. Owner Arthur Blank may be in love with Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, but new GM Thomas Dimitroff wants to build a strong defense. Dorsey will be a beast in the middle, and the Falcons will be thrilled to have him.
Previous selection: Matt Ryan
4. Oakland
RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas: Spoke to a member of the Raiders' organization Thursday morning who said Al Davis has already given the order to take McFadden. A large part of the reason Davis soured on head coach Lane Kiffin is because Randy Moss left town and shredded the league in 2007. McFadden's a potential superstar. If he starts to slide (and this could happen), the Panthers and Bears might attempt to trade up for him.
Previous selection: Darren McFadden
5. Kansas City
OT Ryan Clady, Boise State: The Chiefs will choose between a defensive end and an offensive tackle. Virginia's Branden Albert has shot up draft boards, but Clady's a better player. Albert has an unbelievable frame, but he's still somewhat of a project at tackle. Clady can play left tackle immediately.
Previous selection: Glenn Dorsey
6. New York Jets
DE/LB Vernon Gholston, Ohio State: Calvin Pace and Gholston will make a pretty solid pairing as outside pass-rushers in the 3-4. I think Gholston has a great shot to be rookie of the year. He's a dynamic player and I think the Dolphins actually considered him at No. 1 overall. He'll make more of an immediate impact than either Jake or Chris Long.
Previous selection: Vernon Gholston
7. New England
LB Keith Rivers, USC: This team could use some youthful energy at linebacker. Rivers is one of those players who quietly made his way up the draft board. The Patriots might try to trade down and take him, but it's obvious they love his potential. He'll start immediately at linebacker and give the defense more speed. I was told Thursday night that Lions coach Rod Marinelli is in love with Rivers, but not enough to trade up to No. 7.
Previous selection: Dominiquie Rodgers-Cromartie
8. Baltimore
QB Matt Ryan, Boston College: This is the Ravens' dream scenario. If the Falcons take Ryan, the Ravens may try to trade out of this pick. It would be interesting if the Saints were willing to move up to No. 8 in order to select USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. The Ravens wouldn't mind sticking it to their division rivals. It's not like the Bengals need a quarterback, so Ryan would still be there at 10.
Previous selection: Aqib Talib
9. Cincinnati
DT Sedrick Ellis, USC: If he's there, you have to take him. I don't think he's too far behind Glenn Dorsey. A scout who watched him in person three times last season called him "an absolute monster." I don't think there are many people who can move Ellis around, so he'll help the Bengals porous defense immediately.
Previous selection: Sedrick Ellis
10. New Orleans
CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida: There will be a run on cornerbacks at some point, so we might as well start here. Jenkins is one of four elite corners, and he'll be an immediate starter for the Saints. New Orleans might try to trade up for Glenn Dorsey, but the price will be too steep. Jenkins has a lot of what scouts describe as "suddenness" and he's excellent at the point of the attack. Mel K. has the Saints taking Aqib Talib here, but a source with the Saints says that will never happen.
Previous selection: Keith Rivers
11. Buffalo
WR Devin Thomas, Michigan State: I don't like this pick, but the Bills have tied themselves to selecting a wide receiver. That's a dangerous way to approach this draft. I don't think the separation between the so-called "elite" wide receivers and the second-tier receivers is that great. I would save up and draft someone like Cal's Lavelle Hawkins in the third round.
Previous selection: Derrick Harvey
12. Denver
OT Branden Albert, Virginia: I know some Broncos fans want Rashard Mendenhall, but there's too much depth in this running back class to make that decision. Albert, who played guard at Virginia, is an amazing talent. I think Vanderbilt's Chris Williams is a better player at this point, but Albert has a higher ceiling. The people who have Albert falling into the 20s. haven't been talking to enough scouts.
Previous selection: Ryan Clady
13. Carolina
DE Derrick Harvey, Florida: He's the best pass-rusher left on the board. I actually think he's a top-10 talent. He'll take some pressure off Julius Peppers. I think the Panthers end up with tremendous value on this pick. So far, agent Tom Condon and his CAA gang have four players off the board. And running back Jonathan Stewart is still there for the taking.
Previous selection: Chris Williams
14. Chicago
OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh: Illinois' Rashard Mendenhall would be the popular choice, but Otah is the safer pick. He's an excellent run-blocker, but an NFC offensive line coach told me Thursday night that he could get exposed by good edge rushers.
Previous selection: Rashard Mendenhall
15. Detroit
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois: The Lions shock their fan base and don't take a receiver. The Lions would love for Harvey to fall to them, but it's not going to happen. Mendenhall will be an excellent back.
Previous selection: Leodis McKelvin
16. Arizona
CB Leodis McKelvin, Troy: He's unbelievably fast and gets to a ton of balls. He has small hands, so the Cardinals shouldn't expect a lot of interceptions. I think McKelvin's a better corner than Mike Jenkins, but the Saints don't agree.
Previous selection: Mike Jenkins
17. Kansas City (from Minnesota)
DE Phillip Merling, Clemson: His sports hernia injury is somewhat of a concern, but he was a great college football player. He can't fill Jared Allen's shoes, but he'll be productive early. I just finished watching some tape of the guy. A great player who flew under the radar for some reason.
Previous selection: Phillip Merling
18. Houston
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State: With starting corner Dunta Robinson out with an injury, the Texans desperately need help at this position. Rodgers-Cromartie is an explosive player who will start immediately. The fact that he has one kidney scared off a few teams, but doctors aren't overly concerned about his future. I think he might be the best corner in the draft.
Previous selection: Branden Albert
19. Philadelphia
OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt: Andy Reid and the Eagles are thrilled to see Williams slip this far. He's a better left tackle prospect than Jeff Otah, according to two NFC scouts I talked to Wednesday. And he's a great character guy. Ran into some grade issues because he picked a ridiculously tough major, but he rallied.
Previous selection: Jeff Otah
20. Tampa Bay
CB Aqib Talib, Kansas: Something tells me the Buccaneers will do something unwise and take Indiana receiver James Hardy. He has a ton of potential, but he's not the type of player who can help you right away. Talib is an elite corner. He's the fourth cornerback off the board, in part because of his reported marijuana use during college. He was very up front about that during the combine, and that impressed several teams. I watched the kid play in high school and college. The only thing I've heard coaches say is that he doesn't always do well when the play's away from him.
Previous selection: Devin Thomas
21. Washington
WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma: I don't think it's a wise move, but my gut tells me the Redskins are leaning this way. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Dan Snyder and quarterback Jason Campbell hopped a private jet and flew to Norman on Thursday morning to see Kelly in person. I'm told Campbell threw to Kelly before hopping back on a plane and then heading to Manhattan, Kan. But more on that later.
Previous selection: Quentin Groves
22. Dallas
RB Felix Jones, Arkansas: Unless Mike Jenkins falls into their laps, the Cowboys will take Jones. Don't be shocked if they take Oregon running back Jonathan Stewart, who is recovering from toe surgery. I've said it 100 times, but I'll say it again: Stewart may be the best back in this draft.
Previous selection: Felix Jones
23. Pittsburgh
RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon: Yes, I know Willie Parker still plays for the Steelers, but they can't pass up this opportunity. It's rare that you can get this type of value at No. 23.
Previous selection: Gosder Cherilus
24. Tennessee
WR Limas Sweed, Texas: I would love for the great Jim Schwartz to land a linebacker or defensive end here, but the Titans want to provide Vince Young with a serviceable young receiver. Young's very familiar with Sweed, who has the potential to remind people of Detroit's Roy Williams.
Previous selection: Jonathan Stewart
25. Seattle
TE Dustin Keller, Purdue: My gut's telling me the Seahawks will take defensive tackle Kentwan Balmer. But it's been wrong before. The Seahawks have a serious need at tight end and Keller's going to be a better pro than Fred Davis. But don't hold me to that.
Previous selection: Dustin Keller
26. Jacksonville
DT Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina: The Jags need to do something about the loss of Marcus Stroud. Balmer's not on the same level as Ellis and Dorsey, but he's an immediate starter. I only watched him play three times in college. Came away impressed every time.
Previous selection: Kentwan Balmer
27. San Diego
OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston College: The 49ers would be really upset to see the Chargers take Cherilus. It just makes too much sense, though. Sure, the Chargers could use another cornerback and a backup running back. But they can do that later in the draft. San Diego would be happy to trade out of this pick if anyone's interested. At least that's what one member of the organization told me Thursday afternoon.
Previous selection: Dan Connor
28. Dallas
CB Brandon Flowers, Virginia Tech: Jerry Jones will be trying to trade down with this pick. Someone will want to take Michigan quarterback Chad Henne at this point, and Jones will make a deal. But if they stay put, the Cowboys will take Flowers. The Pacman trade will not affect how the club approaches the draft. Also look for the possibility of the Cowboys trading down and eventually taking Tracy Porter out of Indiana. They really like him.
Previous selection: Brandon Flowers
29. San Francisco
WR DeSean Jackson, Cal: This kid would scare me because he's so small. But he gives you a legitimate deep threat and he's good on returns. Because I have some friends in the organization, I'm hoping Cherilus falls to them.
Previous selection: Jerod Mayo
30. Green Bay
S Kenny Phillips, Miami: He's slipping out of the first round on a lot of draft boards, but not in Green Bay. The Packers need more consistency at the safety spot and Phillips could be a steal at this point.
Previous selection: Kenny Phillips
31. New York Giants
S Tyrell Johnson, Arkansas State: He started 45 games in college, and don't let the small school thing fool you. He can hold his own against elite talent and Jerry Reese won't hesitate to pull the trigger.
Previous selection: DeSean Jackson
