Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Pre-draft analysis can be a bit like the draft itself -- art as much as science. Scouts Inc. helped to facilitate the latter by providing a straightforward analysis (AFC, NFC) of all 254 first-round draft choices since 2000. By grading each player as having exceeded, met or fallen below expectations, the Scouts braintrust allowed for another level of examination.
I'll break down some of the findings here in conjunction with the related package appearing on the site today. First we'll look at the best first-round slots to target specific positions in the first round, based on how teams have fared drafting players over the last eight drafts.
The chart provides a summary of results. Defensive positions are shaded brown. Note that most first-round receivers failed to meet expectations, while linebackers almost always panned out.
This analysis covers every position but kicker (Sebastian Janikowski was the only kicker selected in the first roud this decade).
We'll start with defensive backs because teams have selected more of them in the first round (46) than players at any other position:
Defensive back
Best range to find them: Fifth overall, picks 8-23
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 18.2
DBs selected in first rounds since 2000: 46
Not on an NFL roster (8): Pacman Jones, the late Sean Taylor, Ahmad Carroll, Mike Rumph, Willie Middlebrooks, Derrick Gibson, Rashard Anderson, Ahmed Plummer.
Wide receiver
Best range to find them: Third overall
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 16.05
WRs selected in first rounds since 2000: 37
Not on an NFL roster (8): Rashaun Woods, Charles Rogers, David Terrell, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Peter Warrick, Sylvester Morris, R. Jay Soward
Defensive end
Best range to find them: Picks 2-13
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 15.59
DEs selected in first rounds since 2000: 32
Not on an NFL roster (4): Michael Haynes, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown, Erik Flowers
Defensive tackle
Best range to find them: Picks 13-21
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 14.7
DTs selected in first rounds since 2000: 27
Not on an NFL roster (3): Johnathan Sullivan, Wendell Bryant, Corey Simon
Running back
Best range to find them: Picks 5-7 and 19-30
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 16.75
RBs selected in first rounds since 2000: 24
Not on an NFL roster (4): Kevin Jones, William Green, Ron Dayne, Trung Canidate
Linebacker
Best range to find them: Picks 9-12 and 23-32
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 17.1
LBs selected in first rounds since 2000: 23
Not on an NFL roster (2): LaVar Arrington, Rob Morris
Quarterback
Best range to find them: Picks 11-18
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 11.8
QBs selected in first rounds since 2000: 21
Not on an NFL roster (2): Byron Leftwich, Michael Vick
Offensive tackle
Best range to find them: Picks 3-18
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 13
OTs selected in first rounds since 2000: 21
Not on an NFL roster (4): Chris McIntosh, Stockar McDougle, Kenyattah Walker, Mike Williams
Tight end
Best range to find them: Picks 6-24 and 30-32
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 22.46
TEs selected in first rounds since 2000: 13
Not on an NFL roster (1): Jerramy Stevens
Guard
Best range to find them: Picks 17-32
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 25
Guards selected in first rounds since 2000: 6
Not on an NFL roster (0): None
Center
Best range to find them: Picks 21-29
Average spot selected in first rounds since 2000: 25.3
Centers selected in first rounds since 2000: 3
Not on an NFL roster (0): None
As part of this package, we also took a look at which teams have fared the best and worst in first rounds sincei 2000.
