Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Recent history says Kansas City, Carolina, Buffalo, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Miami are likely to fare well in the NFL draft Saturday. Those teams hold the fifth, 13th, 11th, 29th, 23rd and 32nd overall choices, respectively, and those picks have been kind to teams since 2000.
I offer this information purely for fun. Obviously, there's no reason a team can't find standout players with the first, fourth, 20th, 22nd and 26th overall choices. They simply haven't done so during the last eight drafts. We know this because Scouts, Inc. graded every first-round choice since 2000, revealing which selections produced the best players on a consistent basis (AFC grades, NFC grades).
Here is how to read the chart, beginning with the first row in gray: Since 2000, the fifth overall choice has produced four players who exceeded expectations, four who met expectations and zero who fell below expectations. One-hundred percent of the players taken fifth overall during this span met or exceeded expectations. Kansas City holds the fifth overall pick this year.
Note: The 32nd overall choice is not a first-round selection this year because New England forfeited its selection in the round.
This is the first of three blog items breaking down the Scouts, Inc. findings.
