Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
The Dolphins' reported agreement with Michigan's Jake Long removes some suspense from the top of the draft while giving St. Louis first crack at the top defensive player on its board, should the Rams choose to go in that direction. That scenario played out yesterday during a conference-call mock draft with veteran NFL beat reporters. We gave Glenn Dorsey to the Rams in the second spot, a scenario that left the Falcons with a potentially difficult decision in the third spot: Atlanta could take the lower-risk route of drafting a lineman -- Chris Long would be available -- or the Falcons could draft a potential franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan.
One thing to remember as we mull predraft proclamations about the Falcons' intentions with the third overall pick: Their top personnel man, Thomas Dimitroff, probably knows how to disguise his plans after spending six years with New England.
The volume and intensity of predraft analysis can lead us away from the obvious. At the combine, Ryan demonstrated the type of presence the Falcons could use at quarterback as they rebuild their roster and credibility. Yes, drafting a quarterback that early puts pressure on a front office and coaching staff to make the situation work, or else. But we could also make the case that this franchise needs as much leadership as it can get, and Ryan fits the mold both from a personality standpoint and in terms of playing the right position.
The Falcons already have three second-round choices and two third-rounders. They do not need extra picks. They do need a leader at quarterback. If they think Ryan is clearly better than the alternatives available later, they can draft him at No. 3 and still find a few impact players at less important positions later in the draft.
One question to consider about the Dolphins' decision at No. 1 would be whether Long projects as a true left tackle over the course of his career. If he is best suited at right tackle, it's tougher to justify taking him that early. Either way, Long has the look of a 10-year starter who will bring toughnes and leadership to a line that needs both.
The Rams also need help on their offensive line, but finding an impact defensive lineman to pair with Adam Carriker makes a lot of sense. La'Roi Glover turns 34 this summer. Offensive lines can succeed with less dynamic talent because teamwork is a larger part of the equation. Raw talent means more on a defensive line, one reason teams strike early at the position on draft day.
