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Predicting AD's 2000-yard season

February 8, 2008 11:58 AM

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike McAllister

HONOLULU -- Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson thinks he'll produce a 2,000-yard season. In fact, he thinks he'll do it in 2008.

"Oh, yeah, I set my bar high," he said this week, one of just four rookies (Patrick Willis, Joe Thomas and Nick Folk are the others) appearing in the Pro Bowl. "That's definitely where I'd like to start."

Adrian PetersonHalfway through his spectacular rookie season in 2007, Peterson was on pace to do just that. He was at 1,036 yards after his NFL single-game record 296-yard performance in a Week 9 win against the Chargers.

But a sprained knee suffered the next week at Green Bay basically derailed him for the rest of the season. He missed the next two games, and even though he came back to rush for 116 yards in a rout of Detroit, he never really seemed the same, managing just 144 yards in the final four games and eventually finishing with 1,341 yards, second in the league to LaDainian Tomlinson's 1,474.

"I wasn't fully healthy," he acknowledged. "But I don't want to make excuses."

If he did, his knee injury wouldn't be the only one. Opponents game-planned for him, loading up in the box while not having to worry about the Vikings' anemic passing game (28th in the league).

Plus, it wasn't like Peterson was getting a heavy dose of carries. Of the nine players who rushed for 1,200-plus yards in 2007, only the Jaguars' Fred Taylor had less carries than Peterson's 238.

Although his nickname is All Day -- which he acquired as a baby because "I was so energized; I was always into something" -- his workload was more like Two-Thirds of a Day. (Helpful side note: Peterson prefers that you call him "AD" instead of "AP." Yeah, may be a bit confusing, but hey, it's his nickname.)

Peterson knows he can't control the amount of carries he gets. He just wants to keep pushing.

"Just continue to do what I always do," he said. "That's set my goals, set the bar high, continue to work hard and it will show on the field. That's the mindset I have."

But the question remains: Does Peterson have 659 more yards in him? Will he join Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis and O.J. Simpson in the 2,000-yard club?

He has the home-run potential that can salvage an otherwise ordinary day. He also has guard Steve Hutchinson, center Matt Birk and fullback Tony Richardson blocking for him. All on the NFC's Pro Bowl roster.

On the flip side, there's that nasty thing called the forward pass that isn't exactly the Vikings' forte. And Chester Taylor's presence on the roster will siphon off some of Peterson's carries. Taylor rushed for 1,216 yards in the season prior to Peterson's arrival, so the Vikes are certainly justified in handing him the ball 150 times a season.

Taylor has two more years left on his four-year, $14.1 million contract. Provided the Vikings don't trade him, the guess here is that Peterson's first legitimate shot at 2000 yards won't come until 2010 -- depending, of course, on whether Taylor is re-signed.

Perhaps by then, the Vikes will have stabilized their quarterback situation (Is Tarvaris Jackson the answer?) that will prevent opposing defenses from loading up on Peterson.

And that would be Peterson's fourth season in the league, pretty much in the middle of when the other running backs rushed for 2,000 yards. Davis did it his fourth season; Simpson his fifth; Jamal Lewis his third (but he missed a season due to injury); and Eric Dickerson his second. Barry Sanders was the lone latecomer, rushing for 2,053 yards in his ninth season.

So, time for you to weigh in. Will Peterson ever rush for 2,000 yards?

2008 Pro Bowl, Adrian Peterson

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