Every week until prior to the CIF state bowl games in December, the staff of CalHiSports.com will offer predicted scores from the biggest football matchups. Given the wide gap between the haves and the have nots, any prep writer with a brain should be able to get 70 percent correct on their local games. We will only pick the toughest of the tough, which this week is seven games.
(Note: It is not our intention to entice gambling in any way with these predicted scores. We will only use actual scores, not point spreads. Finally, because we greatly respect all coaches and student-athletes who step onto the field to compete, the winning margin of some predicted scores could be pared down).
Here are the predicted scores and analysis for the top games around California coming up this weekend:
Mission Viejo 28, Loyola (Los Angeles) 21
Loyola is an improved team, but the Diablos will be ready playing at home. The Mission Viejo coaching staff will have its team ready to slow down Loyola's Anthony Barr. He'll get his yardage, but Mission will score one more touchdown because for one, they'll be a home and two, it will produce a more diversified offense. We can also see Mission gambling a bit and it will pay off in this game. State Rankings: Mission Viejo No. 15, Loyola on the bubble (No. 26 in preseason).
Don Bosco Prep (Ramsey, N.J.) 14, De La Salle (Concord) 7
Picking against the Spartans is usually not a good idea, but we don't see the team's serious flaws on offense being fixed quickly enough for this matchup against one of the top teams in the East. The Ironmen have to replace some key starters on offense, but on defense they have several standouts back. When the two teams played last year, which was a 23-21 win by Don Bosco Prep, the New Jersey boys didn't have running back Tony Jones available. He'll be available this year and although the DLS defense looked great against Serra of San Mateo last week it may only take two scores from the Bosco offense to prevail. With the Spartans getting a bye week to prepare for their Sept. 25 clash with Lakeland (Fla.), we think some of the offensive weaknesses will be further fixed. Having to do it during a week in which the team has to travel across the country? That seems like too tall of an order. State Rankings: Don Bosco Prep n/a, De La Salle No. 3 (both teams are in the top 20 of the ESPN RISE FAB 50).
St. Bonaventure (Ventura) 31, Poly (Long Beach) 17
Even if Poly would have beaten or played Servite (Anaheim) close, the Seraphs would still be the favorites in this one. Remember when L.A. City Section power Birmingham played Poly for the first time? They were intimidated and got creamed, 46-8. We know what happened the next year in 2007. Same thing with the Seraphs. LB Dylan Davis told us his team had some jitters strapping it up against Poly last year and still it took a clutch touchdown catch by Stan McKay to beat them, 12-7. McKay and almost everyone else is gone and with up to 15 underclassman in the lineup for Poly, the Jackrabbits just won't make that much improvement in one week and St. Bonnie, of course, will not be shaky at the start. State Rankings: St. Bonaventure No. 2, Long Beach Poly No. 16.
Crenshaw (Los Angeles) 24, Norco 23
This is a very intriguing matchup. It could go either way, and we wouldn't be surprised if Norco won, but we'll go with the Shaw because one, they'll have a lot of confidence and two, they thought they could beat this team last year. Lakewood might be better than Norco, but the I.E. Cougars will make less mistakes and will lay the leather on every play. Hayes Pullard has to be fresh for defense, so Qujuan Floyd and Dayvon Allen have to step up at fullback, and De'Anthony Thomas can't waste too much energy on defense because they'll be hitting him hard when he runs the ball. Still, Crenshaw will make the big plays when it needs to and Norco won't be able to hold off the Cougars for the entire night. If Thomas is injured and can't play, Norco wins by more than a point. State Rankings: Crenshaw No. 9, Norco on the bubble (No. 33 in preseason).
Granite Bay 23, Pittsburg 20
This is the feature game of the four-game set being played at Folsom High on Saturday, billed as the Battle for the Capital. Pitt is entering after a 27-9 victory over Burbank of Sacramento in its first game while Granite Bay is making its season debut. Perhaps because we saw the Grizzlies play so well in their close loss to eventual CIF Open Division state bowl game winner Grant of Sacramento or perhaps it's because this will be much more of a home game for them than for Pitt, we think it will be a Granite Bay victory. Pitt junior quarterback Julius Mozee and a cast of receivers and running backs can make big plays all over the field. The Pirates will win if they can drastically cut down on many of the mistakes that occurred against Burbank. Granite Bay will win if the senior class at the school is as strong as we think they are. State Rankings: Granite Bay No. 19, Pittsburg No. 21.
Centennial (Corona) 31, Chaparral (Temecula) 24
Five years ago, Southwestern League fans said it was only a matter of time before their schools became dominant in Southwest Riverside County. The reasoning is the region was growing as fast as any in the state and a lot of young, bright coaches lived there or were moving into the area. The economic downturn and the housing crunch might have slowed down that growth recently, but the SWL's big day is here. This is the win it needs. Chaparral has more returning firepower, but Centennial won't give up its mantle as the top I.E. team easily. Chaparral will come in fired up, but if the Pumas don't build a big lead quickly the Huskies will become dangerous in the second half. We're saying they won't pull away and the SWL will have to wait for another day because the Huskies have plenty of motivation, too. State Rankings: Centennial No. 7, Chaparral No. 12
Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa) 20, Central Catholic (Modesto) 14
In an opening game small school battle of teams expected to challenge new group member St. Mary's (Stockton) for the CIF Division III North Bowl bid, it would appear Newman has the upper hand in the 5 p.m. game at Folsom High in "The Battle At The Capital." The Cardinals have a new quarterback but that's the case every year in wily coach Paul Cronin's system. Senior 6-1, 207-pound Jack James, who gained notoriety last year by catching the game-winning pass in the very back of the end zone in an early season victory over Palma of Salinas, is that young man. He's got a great arm and he can run like a fullback with almost tailback speed. It appears the boys from Santa Rosa have a deeper bunch of returnees, albeit almost all are playing a different position this year including James. Will this be the year the Raiders from Modesto even up the series, currently trailing 1-2-1? Sources tell us they're a bit banged up and may have just over two dozen players healthy and ready to rumble. If they're really banged up it might not be this close. State Rankings: Neither in overall top 25. Cardinal Newman was No. 44 in preseason.
Parker (San Diego) 21, St. Margaret's (SJ Capistrano) 14
These two high-powered Division V schools thrashed much higher-enrollment teams last week and meet a year after many felt these same two teams should have been in the state Small School bowl championship game. The difference in this one: Parker's All-State multi-purpose player Deon Randall. St. Margaret's comes in with an Orange County record 44-game winning streak after crushing Blair (Pasadena), 68-0. It is led by super-quick John Murayama who will score at least once. However, even though Parker will be missing its No. 1 running back/defensive back DeMaree Harris (broke a foot in a summer football camp), the Lancers are bigger up front and have Randall, who is a dual threat passing to quality receivers or just taking off on foot for big yardage. To the winner will go the favorite's role for the Southern California berth in the CIF Small School state bowl game. State Rankings: Neither in overall top 25. Parker is No. 1, St. Margaret's No. 2 in CIF small schools for Southern California.
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