Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg
Home-field advantage is a major factor in college football, but the road teams look strong this week in the Big Ten. It's not quite a clean sweep for the visitors, but several Homecomings could end on a sour note.
The big one in Columbus was a very tough call.
Northwestern 34, Indiana 21: These types of games have stung Northwestern in the past, but a senior-laden Wildcats team does a good job of keeping its focus and handling inferior teams. The Wildcats rebounded well last week against Purdue, and senior quarterback C.J. Bacher could be on one of his hot streaks, particularly with a vulnerable Hoosiers secondary up next. Indiana keeps it close for a while, especially if Kellen Lewis plays, but Northwestern always makes good second-half adjustments and pulls away late.
Wisconsin 28, Illinois 27: My upset pick of the week. As well as Illinois has played on offense, I just can't see Wisconsin falling to 0-5 in league play. The Badgers' senior defenders force a few late turnovers and running backs P.J. Hill and John Clay muscle an Illinois team that ranks 72nd nationally in rush defense (150.9 ypg). Juice Williams could certainly prove me wrong, but Illinois' inconsistency this year combined with a Wisconsin team playing for pride leads to an upset.
Minnesota 31, Purdue 27: This could go one of two ways. Purdue completely falls apart after four straight losses, quarterback Curtis Painter loses more of the locker room and the defense caves after a poor performance last week. But my sense is the Boilermakers will fight hard in coach Joe Tiller's final Homecoming game. Minnesota coach Tim Brewster thinks he discovered the magical bye-week schedule, but the Gophers start slow before turning it on in the fourth quarter.
Michigan State 26, Michigan 24: There's some concern that Michigan State will begin its annual nosedive after last week's punch-less performance against Ohio State. But coach Mark Dantonio and his players have spotlighted this game for months, and Michigan State will be emotionally and physically recharged to face their top rival. Michigan starts strong behind Steven Threet and Brandon Minor, but the Spartans rally and win on a Brett Swenson field goal to snap their six-game slide.
Penn State 27, Ohio State 24: The Nittany Lions are the more complete team, but the Buckeyes are playing their best football and have the game at home, where Penn State has never won as a member of the Big Ten. This could easily go either way, but Penn State's ability to control the line of scrimmage will be the difference. Despite Thad Gibson's emergence, I'm still not sold on the Ohio State defensive line. Both quarterbacks make some plays, but Penn State's offensive balance shows in the fourth quarter.
Bye: Iowa (5-3, 2-2 Big Ten)
Season record: 52-9 (85.2 percent)
Adam Rittenberg joined ESPN.com in 2008 after four years at the Arlington Heights (Ill.) Daily Herald, where he covered sports at Notre Dame, Northwestern, DePaul and several other colleges. He lives in Chicago.
