ESPN AFC East Blog

Posted by ESPN.com's Tim Graham

Jacob in St. Paul, Minn., writes: You mentioned in your Week 11 Preview that Mike Smith has to be the frontrunner for coach of year. If the Dolphins make the playoffs, is it safe to say that Sparano would have to be the winner?

Tim Graham: What Mike Smith is doing with the Atlanta Falcons is borderline miraculous. Not only is Smith winning with a rookie quarterback, but he's also resurrecting a franchise that was built around Michael Vick and then shaken to its core by the dog-fighting scandal.

Tony Sparano also could get hurt in coach-of-the-year balloting because of Bill Parcells' shadow. Smith is the focal point of Atlanta's turnaround. Parcells' name always gets brought up when talking about Miami and that spreads the credit.

John in Panama City, Fla., writes: The Bills offensive line is horrible! Are there any possible pick-ups in FA now that could help the Bills start winning again...specifically at Center?

Tim Graham: Offensive line depth is one of the NFL's great luxuries. Teams have been searching for quality offensive linemen since the summer. Street free agents aren't an option for the Bills at this juncture.

Dianne in San Francisco writes: Hey Tim. Great blog. Keep up the good work. What do you think NE will do with Cassell next year? Brady shall be back, Cassell will be a free agent and after yesterday game I think theres no doubt hes evolving into (maybe not a great) but a good quaterback. With so many needs in other positions, can NE afford to have them both? Thanks for your time. BTW. You should change that profile pic, doesnt make justice to you. You are a hottie live!

Tim Graham: You win this week's Make Tim Blush Award. You're too kind to deliver that compliment, Dianne. I take a lot of ribbing for that photo. Sadly, it's the best one I have. Unlike the rest of my blogger brethren, I missed picture day in Bristol.

What will become of Matt Cassel will be a compelling story line in a few months. Every week his value rises in the free-agent marketplace. He's proving he can make plays with his head, arm and feet. The Patriots plugged him in to run their system, but he's forcing GMs around the league to envision him as more than a proxy.

Wes in California writes: During training camp I heard that Junior Seau wasn't officially retired and was keeping in contact with the Patriots. Now that they are hurting at that position is there any talks between them? Or is his career over and I missed it? I thought he played pretty good last year for an old man.

Tim Graham: Junior Seau still hasn't retired, but his replacement, rookie Jerod Mayo, is playing fabulously. Maybe the Patriots would bring back Seau if there's an injury to either Mayo or Tedy Bruschi, but they don't need him. Seau doesn't play the same position as Adalius Thomas, so the old warrior wouldn't help there, either.

Mr. Anonymous from West Palm Beach, Fla., writes: So, do you still stand by your 2008 team predictions for the AFC East, or do you want to revamp your estimate of where the teams willl end up?

Tim Graham: I sense some indignation in your question. But my preseason playoff forecast had the Patriots winning the AFC East and the Jets earning a wild-card berth. It's a tight race. The homestretch should be riveting.

Sean in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, writes: So, how many more poor outing by Edwards until J.P. Losman gets his starting job back?

Tim Graham: The season will need to get downright bleak for that to happen. But with the rest of the AFC East playing so well, bleak might be right around the corner. The problem with a switch, though, is that Trent Edwards is Buffalo's quarterback of the future, while J.P. Losman will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. The only benefit to inserting Losman would be to spark the team, and that's a short-term remedy.

Greg from New Jersey writes: Tim, you are obviously a big fan of Cassel's. I agree, he's been sufficient and has played well; however, the offensive line for the Patriots has been elite for many years now...I'm pretty sure you could put ALMOST anybody behind that line and expect some sort of success. Remember, this is still mostly the same Patriots team that went 18-1.

Tim Graham: I wouldn't say I'm a big fan of Matt Cassel's, but I am impressed by his rapid development. He was criticized harshly -- by myself included -- in training camp and the first six or seven weeks of the season. He deserves to be praised for his performances now.

As for the Patriots' offensive linemen, they are decorated. They have Pro Bowlers at left tackle, left guard and center. But they've also given up the third-most sacks in the NFL.

Mr. Anonymous in Niagara Falls writes: Tim i am a die-heart Dolphins fan and unfortuantely i live 20 minutes away from buffalo and my whole family is Bills fans but im praying Miami can make the playoffs and edge out the Bills do you think they have a chance to make the playoffs and maybe winthe division?

Tim Graham: The Dolphins are serious players in the AFC East race, maybe moreso than the sinking Bills at this stage. The Dolphins are maturing, have built momentum with their three-game win streak and have the division's easiest remaining schedule. The Bills are the only AFC East team not performing. That's not a promising trend for mid-November.

Chris in Los Angeles writes: My question for you Tim is do you think Ted Ginn has the stuff to become a no.# 1 go to receiver or will he end up an average contributor just short of a flat out waste of a draft pick? Also, with Pennington playing so well, how long do you think it will be before Chad Henne assumes the mantle of starter? And finally, even if we finih 10-6, 9-7 or even 8-8 I think Coach Sparano should be the hands down coach of the year! GO DOLPHINS!!!

Tim Graham: The two choices you lay out for Ted Ginn are a bit extreme. He might end up somewhere between. Ginn doesn't have to become a traditional No. 1 receiver in order to avoid being considered a bust as last year's ninth overall draft pick. That said, his flashes of brilliance have been rare so far.

With the way Chad Pennington is executing the offense, he looks like he can do this for a while. Unless Pennington suffers a major injury in the next couple years, Chad Henne might have to wait until 2010 to take over.

Rob in Amston, Conn., writes: It is just me, or the Jets 1st round draft pick, Vernon Glosthon, not doing much of anything on there? Is it just rookie year stuff or did the Jets waste a draft pick?

Tim Graham: For now, Vernon Gholston is a rookie project. If his inability to get on the field drags into next season, then you can consider him a bad draft choice at sixth overall. I'm not saying he won't be a serviceable player, but there were a lot of terrific prospects still on the board when the Jets selected Gholston.

Alex in Pennsylvania writes: Tim, I realize the game will already have been played by the time the Mailbag gets released, but if it's still relevant: I've been told that we angsty Phin fans want the winner of the Thursday Pats/Jets game to be the team with home field. That would be the Pats. Care to shed some light on why that would be so? (Other than we beat the Pats and more Jets losses couldn't hurt us with that last game looming). Thanx.

Tim Graham: I'm not sure about the home team being a factor, but I can understand Dolfans wanting the Patriots to win based on the fact the Dolphins already have beaten them but lost to the Jets. Maybe fans are looking at being tied with the Patriots at the end of the season as being more favorable than finishing tied the Jets.

I liked Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter's philosophy of rooting for the Jets because it would give them a 1-1 record against the Patriots and "cause some confusion in the division."

While we're at it, let's remind everybody of the playoff tiebreaking procedures.

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs.)
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games
12. Coin toss.

Ryan in Salt Lake City writes: I would like to know the stat on the team that wins the coin flip in OT how often they win the game? Thank you.

Tim Graham: The latest breakdown I have from the NFL is from 1974 (the year overtime was instituted) through 2006. There were 402 overtime games in that span. The team that won the coin toss won the game 217 times (53 percent). The team that lost the toss won 173 times (43 percent).

Both teams had at least one possession 285 times (71 percent), and the team that won the coin toss drove for the winning score on the first series 117 times (29 percent).

And here's an interesting note: A team won the coin toss and elected to kick nine times.

Mike Henderson in Lawrence, Mass., writes: Have you noticed the accuracy and athleticism of Matt Cassell and the way he is developing in half a season that he'll probably be one of the highest sought free agents this off season

Tim Graham: I have noticed that, Mike. I wrote a story about Cassel's evolution after the Patriots defeated the Bills on Nov. 9.

Lonnie in Pompano Beach, Fla., writes: do you think the miami dolpfins can beat the dallas cowboys with a uninjuried tony romo

Tim Graham: The Dolphins are good enough to compete with any team in the NFL. But the only way they'll play the Cowboys this season would be in the Super Bowl.

Dorothy from Parts Unknown writes: Everyone is jumbing on Brett for throwing 12 INT this season. In looking at the film...how many of those are because he made a bad decision versus receivers running wrong routes, or stopping routes or thru their hands or Brett being hit as he throws.

Tim Graham: Many of the subtleties you mention are difficult to determine on a pass-by-pass basis for anyone not on the field or the Jets' coaching staff. Quarterbacks rarely out their receivers for mistakes and vice versa, and in many instances we don't know if the receiver ran the wrong route, the quarterback improperly read the defense or the defender simply made a great play. But over the course of a season, a quarterback's interception total is on him. He's the only common denominator each time he's picked off.

Kyle in Pittsburgh writes: With 23 seconds left in regulation in the Jets-Patriots Game, there was an false start by the center, Dan Koppen. The 10 seconds were never ran off the clock!!! That's no excuse for blowing an 18 point lead. But still. The game would have been over then Welker caught the next pass. Get it right!

Mike in Indianapolis writes: Tim, what happened to the 10-second runoff after the Patriots' procedure penalty with under 30 seconds left in regulation, when they were out of timeouts? Thanks, Mike

Bergen in Norway writes: Hi Tim Why was there no 10 second run-off when the Patritos got a false start with 23 seconds left? Can you explain the 10 second run-off rule and when it applies? Thank you. Ps. Great blog

Tim Graham: This was a popular question. The 10-second runoff applies only when the clock is running. Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel had spiked the ball on the previous play to stop the clock.

Under Rule 4, Section 7, Article 1 of the NFL rules, offensive penalties such as a false start within the final minute of a half are considered illegal "actions to conserve time," but apply only "while time is in."

Dave in Denver writes: What happened to your chat on Friday the 14th?

Tim Graham: Funny you should ask that, Dave.

I had biblical travel problems trying to return home from Foxborough, Mass. I flew out of Providence, R.I., with a connection in Philadelphia. While leaving Providence, I enjoyed one of those classic airline moments, where they get you on the plane, close the cabin door and then inform you they're going to park on the runway because Philadelphia is foggy, and we're not cleared for takeoff. They didn't know that before we got on the plane and maybe could've allowed us to stay in the terminal? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

We finally took off, but then we couldn't land. We circled Philadelphia an extra 45 minutes, touching down 40 minutes after my connection was scheduled to depart for Fort Lauderdale, Fla. I rushed to Gate B4 in hopes my connection also had been delayed. An agent was doling out tickets to dozens of people who'd missed their flights. The rain checks were for Saturday departures and met with groans.

But, as it turned out, my connection hadn't left yet. Only I didn't know that because they'd switched it to Gate B8 and failed to post it on the monitor (because the flight was supposed to have left already and was off the board). After standing in line 15 minutes to speak to the agent at Gate B4, she kindly told me my plane had left from Gate B8 five minutes ago -- with my bag on it.

I was sent to customer service, but rather than wait in a line that was 60 irate travelers deep, I called the airline's 1-800 number on my mobile phone and arranged to get on a 6:15 p.m. flight, which I had to scramble for. Once I got in my seat, the captain came on with some announcements.

We were going to be held up because our flight pattern into Florida was affected. You see, the space shuttle was scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral.

The space shuttle. That part's on me. I should have seen it coming.